On the increasingly exciting path to a Democratic supermajority in the Senate, a new study has been released that suggests Al Franken might overturn Norm Coleman’s 206 vote lead. The Dartmouth study points to the 34,000 residual votes (basically, ballots that did not have a Senate vote recorded) in the contest. There are two possibilities for these ballots: either the voter intentionally did not vote in the Senate race or they intended to vote but somehow messed up. This second group is key because, in Minnesota, voter intent is considered during a recount. More on what this means after the jump.

Voter “intent” can sometimes be hard to decipher, but if a voter marks their ballot with an X or check instead of a filled-in circle, that counts as intent. If a voter circles the name of a candidate, that counts as intent. If they cross out one candidate’s name and mark another candidate, that counts as intent.

So what does it all mean? The study uses data from both this year’s and past elections and estimates that Franken will win a majority of the residual votes where intent can be discerned. So the question becomes: how many unrecorded Senate ballots will show voter intent? The study doesn’t give a specific prediction.

Instead, they conclude, “we cautiously predict that the recount will find a small net increase in votes in favor of Franken (due to unintentional residual votes that are resolved through the recount process).”

Get pumped for the recount. It should be very close, and very exciting.