National - by Charlie Eisenhood on Tuesday, November 4, 2008 15:05 - 3 Comments

Final Reassurance: Obama Will Win

If you’re like me, you’re wringing your hands and waiting anxiously for tonight when this damn thing will finally end. The good news? It should be over in a hurry. Obama’s lead is even more pronounced at the state level than the national level, so early east coast results should quickly tell us a lot. Basically, if the polls are right, then Obama will have a pretty clear path to victory announced by around 8 PM. More about some key states after the jump.

If Obama wins Virginia (polls close at 7 PM EST), there’s not much hope for McCain. So we should know early on in the night how things are looking. McCain, in this situation, would need to win Pennsylvania, where he’s behind from 4 to 14 points in recent polls. He would also need to win Florida and Ohio (he’s behind there too) and win at least one of the three western swing states: Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado (he’s behind there too). Good stuff if you’re an Obama supporter.

If Obama loses Virginia, then we’re in for a much bumpier ride (especially since it might be a sign that the polling has been wrong or undecideds are breaking for McCain). Obama still has a number of paths to victory in this situation, but it will be a scary night.

However, don’t worry Obama fans. Based on poll aggregator Nate Silver’s regression at his indispensable website 538 (that I can’t link often enough), McCain only has a 1.1% chance of winning the election. It’s his lowest probability of the year.

Nate lays out a much fuller picture of what to watch for here and notes that an Obama victory won’t be official until 10 PM (which is when he would have enough electoral college votes to be announced the winner). Get pumped.

Photo Credit: Charlie Eisenhood

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3 Comments

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hannah friedman
Nov 4, 2008 16:17

I am 22 and I’d like to capture my thoughts before America either elects a president who its first 26 presidents could have legally owned, or brazenly subverts the very ideals it was founded upon by manipulating numbers in a final embarrassingly overt goosestep towards corporate totalitarianism.

I am nervous. And not night-before-the-swim-test nervous or even night-you-lose-your-virginity nervous, it’s a low rumbling primal panic which I can only liken to Star Wars panic. Disney panic. The edge-of-your-seat-terror that makes you wonder if Skywalker’s doomed after he refuses to join Darth Vader and drops down into the abyss, if the wicked octopus or grand vizier or steroid-pumping-village-misogynist is going to wed/kill/skin the dashing prince and then evil people in dark funny costumes are going to take over the world… if it wasn’t a movie of course.

And tonight it’s not. It’s not a movie and yet I feel like Obama might as well be wearing an American flag cape while a decaying McCain, in a high-tech robotic spider wheelchair wearing an eyepatch and stroking an evil cat, gives orders to a sexy scheming Palin who marches back and forth through their sub-terranian campaign lair in four inch thigh-highs and full-body black leather catsuit bossing around the evangelical ants with a loooooong whip… umm… is this just me?

Anyway, the point is that things feel weird folks. I have friends who have peed in waterbottles to keep from interrupting a Halo-playing marathon who got off their asses/couches to volunteer for the Obama campaign not once, but many times. Friends so cheap their body content is at least 1/3 Ramen Noodle who donated a good deal of their hard-earned cash to the campaign. People have registered to vote in record numbers, and yet, something just doesn’t feel right. I think we should stop congratulating ourselves for just voting. To vote is a privilege which people have died for, and I think there’s a whole lot more to be done for the country than to simply help win an election every 4 years.

Hundreds of millions of dollars, hundreds of thousands of man-hours spent on both sides by good-intentioned people who want to make a difference in an historic election, so many resources and voices and energies devoted to a single day. After tomorrow, half of that is going to have been a waste. And I can’t help but wonder what could have happened if all that muscle had been put towards something else, and what will happen to its momentum after the election has come and gone. Shouldn’t we be donating our money to good causes whenever we can? Helping people who don’t have? Dedicating some of our time to contribute to making the country which provides for us a better place? Of course a power shift is a hugely significant step on the path to great reform, but worrying about this election has been a wakeup call for me:

Even if Obama wins, we have not “won.” This isn’t a movie and we can’t toss every greedy lobbyist oil fatcat bigot down a reactor shaft. I think if we dedicate ourselves to the ongoing welfare of the country as much as we have to the outcome of this election, we’ll have a much better shot at coming closer to the overwhelming good the liberals hope Obama will usher in, but which no mere mortal could fully realize alone.

Which brings me to the other side. I’ve heard a lot of people claim that if McCain wins, they’re leaving. I heard the same thing about Bush’s reelection, and his unelection before that, and nobody seems to be leaving. And that’s fine. Because as much as I complain about certain political happenings, atrocities, etc., I really do like it here and I suspect most other people do too. We have New York and Hollywood, purple mountain’s majesty and sea to shining sea, we created jazz and country music and baseball and cars and lightbulbs and computers and that movie with hundreds of animated singing Chihuahuas! I mean who among the shivering Plymouth pilgrims ever imagined ordering hundreds of animated singing chihuahuas onto a magical box from an invisible information superweb?

The point being, if things don’t turn out the way I want tomorrow, I feel compelled, as a college-graduated adultish-type-person, to take a stand. And if I’m going to leave I’m going to leave. But if I’m going to stay I’m not going to sit around whining like I have for the past 8 years. It’s like when I don’t clean my room because it’s dirty and then I blame the dirt. So in my very indecisive way, before you and your screen, I’m declaring my intention to make some kind of stand in the event of -(Ican’tevensayit)-, and encouraging you to consider making one too…

Jump the ship or grab a bucket?
-Sigh-
Wasn’t everything so much easier back when the worst possible affront to your values was a PB&J sandwich cut diagonally with crust?

Anyways, I guess what I’m saying is that if we’re going to stay on board, we should probably be generous with our time and resources when times are tough even more than when the hero saves the day. Because what if he doesn’t? And what if he can’t? If we’re serious about real change, election day should only be the beginning of “Yes we can,” not the end.

Best,
Hannah Friedman
http://www.writinghannah.blogspot.com

Matt H
Nov 4, 2008 16:27

Obama won at least 2 months ago. McCain never had a chance, thankfully.

Chris Kennedy
Nov 4, 2008 19:15

Hannah, maybe you should submit that essay you just wrote to the National section instead of posting it as a comment.

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