National - by Ned Resnikoff on Friday, October 31, 2008 6:00 - 5 Comments - 10 views

Pointless Speculation Part Three: Pointless Speculation Goes Meme-y

Apologies in advance for the gratuitously horse-racy coverage today, but honestly, unless the rumored Osama Bin Laden sex tape finally leaks, not a whole lot is going to change between now and Tuesday. And if you’re anything like me (pray that you’re not), you’re probably rifling through polling data like a junkie searching for needles.

Anyway, after since Charlie and I kicked off our friendly wager, Jamelle and Matt, friends of the blog and members of the clubhouse, have put up their own maps. My take on their predictions after the jump.

Interestingly, my map differs very little from either Matt’s or Jamelle. Matt’s looks identical to mine except for North Dakota, which he gives to McCain, and Jamelle gave ND to McCain and Missouri to Obama.

So it’s pretty clear that both Charlie and I were sort of going out on a limb there by saying that North Dakota was going to be a pickup for Obama, but I stand by it. In fact, I’d still argue that it’s likelier than Missouri.

Why? Well, here’s Missouri’s trendline:

Looks good for Obama, but it’s still very tight. Both states are really tight. But look at North Dakota:

See the difference? In the Missouri trendline, Obama gradually chipped into McCain’s lead to get a narrow victory. But for whatever reason, in North Dakota, McCain’s lead plunged. The state hasn’t been polled much recently, but I’m betting that’s the sort of gap that’s more likely to keep widening than the gradual slant that the Missouri trendline is showing.

But ultimately, with its three electoral votes, North Dakota isn’t much of a swing state. So the fact that I even dedicated a full post to it mostly says that we’re in the OCD stage of the election.

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5 Comments

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Josh Becker
Oct 31, 2008 8:03

I recently read that something like 1 in 7 voters were undecided between the two candidates.

So, that’s an interesting (and interestingly sad) fact.

Charlie Eisenhood
Oct 31, 2008 9:12

I’m totally looking for needles. Nate Silver didn’t update 538 with new polls yesterday until 9:40. I was searching all around from 7 onward. Damn.

dene chen
Oct 31, 2008 9:17

Funny story: I was talking to my boyfriend’s roommate last night, and asked him if he was still dating this girl and he said no. I asked why and he said, “She doesn’t know who she’s voting for. Who the hell doesn’t know this late in the game?” I guess that was the deal breaker.

Ned Resnikoff
Oct 31, 2008 9:49

The funny thing is, most undecided people aren’t actually undecided. They’ve done studies, and if someone is leaning towards a particular candidate a month prior to the election, that’s the person they’ll probably vote for.

Henry Chan
Nov 3, 2008 13:54

I read a comment on an NY Times article the other day that suggested that maybe a voter’s claim of indecision is just a polite way to tell the pollsters that it’s none of their business who he/she votes for.

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