Yesterday, the top notch blog Talking Points Memo looked into the McCain campaign’s advertising spending in a number of key swing states around the country and uncovered some surprising news. Contrary to previous reports, McCain does not seem to be refocusing his spending heavily into Pennsylvania; maybe not a bad idea since yesterday’s polls show double digit leads for Obama. But when you look at where McCain is spending, his chances of winning really don’t look good.

Based on analysis from the Campaign Analysis Media Group, McCain is cutting ad spending in Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Pennsylvania. He seems to have shifted resources to both Florida and Virginia, two 2004 red states McCain needs to win. That makes sense, right? Well, yes, but the problem is that if McCain gives up in Colorado and Pennsylvania and loses them (and Obama carries the Kerry states plus Iowa and New Mexico, which looks highly probable), Obama wins. It doesn’t matter whether or not McCain holds on to Virginia and Florida.

So why is the McCain campaign following this strategy? Great question. It doesn’t look like a path to victory. But, then again, there aren’t many victory scenarios left for McCain and his crumbling campaign. The always great polling analysis website FiveThirtyEight has McCain’s chances of winning at only 3.7 percent.

I stand by my fearless prediction but am beginning to think I underestimated the size of Obama’s win.

Photo by Flickr user wednesday181 used under a Creative Commons license.