John King reports that the McCain campaign is preparing to concede New Mexico, Colorado, and Iowa, and pouring resources into Pennsylvania. The problem? The latest polling in PA shows Obama with an 8 to 12 point lead. With only two weeks to go, that’s a huge amount of ground to make up, considering he’d have to move up nearly a point a day to overtake Obama. More mathematical pain for McCain after the jump.

Let’s take a look at this hypothetical: Obama wins all the Kerry states (>90% chance on FiveThirtyEight) except Pennsylvania (which McCain miraculously flips to his column over the next two weeks). But Obama adds New Mexico, Colorado, and Iowa. This leaves Obama with 252 electoral votes (270 needed for victory). As Nate Silver points out, he could win the election by winning either Florida OR Ohio OR Virginia + (Missouri, Nevada, or North Carolina). Polls have tightened in Florida and Ohio over the past couple days, so the Virginia scenario is most likely. And likely it is, since Obama has a comfortable lead in VA, NV, and NC.

The really big problem for McCain is that Obama has a lot of money to keep him from swooping up Pennsylvania. And Obama’s ground game is vastly superior. And Obama keeps nabbing Republican endorsements. And the Obama campaign has been superbly on-message. And the McCain campaign has been erratic. And Sarah Palin. And… Yikes. That’s a lot of really big problems.

He won’t overcome them.

Fearless Prediction: Obama cruises, winning Kerry states + VA, CO, NM, MO, OH, and IA.