To check out the first round of pointless speculation, and read about why Charlie’s going to owe me money after next Tuesday, see here.–ed.

Alright, so I’m not standing by my fearless prediction from last week, because I felt I had to listen to the commanders on the ground. They told me money was on the line, and that’s all I needed to hear. I made some significant adjustments to my map because I need to take Ned’s $5 next Tuesday night. Check out my map, and an explanation of the changes I made after the jump.

Last week I predicted that Obama would win all the Kerry states + VA, CO, NM, MO, OH, and IA. But my map now gives wins to Obama in Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, and (in what will win me this bet) North Dakota. This map would leave Obama with a total of 367 electoral votes.

North Dakota hasn’t been polled since the 15th, when it was dead even, showing McCain and Obama with 45 percent each. This is my riskiest pick. FL, NV, and NC are still battlegrounds, but are all leaning Obama. I think the stability of the race for the past couple weeks will remain through the 4th, delivering these states to Obama. Indiana has been very close lately, but I think McCain will eke out a win there.

Think I’m all wrong? Care to make a wager? Call me out in the comments. I’ll consider any offer.